10/11/07 Tourney

A little late, but worth the wait.  This was the day that Z started Chemo, and since I was in the neighborhood I made an unannounced appearance.  Things were going well until I found myself w/ pocket 8’s in mid-late position.  I made a raise after a few limpers in order to weed out the junk.  Z re-raised from the SB (warnings were going off that he had pocket Q’s).  Someone else between the 2 of us called Z’s re-raise.  I was tempted to fold my 8’s, but pot-odds were decent, a big pot was forming, and I’d get away if I didn’t hit trips.  Flop comes 8 Q K.  Z checks.  Mid player checks.  I was distracted by B and others chatting with me about the dog’s Chemo treatment, etc.  I saw the board and saw that I hit trips, so I pushed all-in.  Of course, I was right – Z had Q’s and had also flopped a set.  The other player dropped.  I had 1 out. 

Lesson?  Go with instincts.  The pre-flop read I had was not close…it was spot-on!  The re-raise came from the SB.  Based on this player profile, their position, the action so far, etc – I gotta believe that he holds AA, KK, or QQ…and nothing less.  After this particular flop, there’s a 66% chance that I’m beat if my read was correct.  I should not have invested any more money into that pot unless I turned/rivered Quads.  Check it down and hope he has AA.  Taking a much needed break for a week or two to focus on Z and on business…gotta make some sense of my finances now that I’ve got a $5,000 chemotherapy treatment program looming.

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